Poll shows it’s now a 5-person race

There are 24 candidates vying for the open U.S. Senate seat, but if a recent poll is accurate, it is really a fiveperson race between three Republicans and two Democrats. In Louisiana's Open Primary system, the top two vote-getters advance to the runoff regardless of party affiliation. It's an open seat because incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter decided not to seek a third six-year term after losing the governor's race.

The most recent poll was conducted by Bernie Pinsonat of Southern Media and Opinion Research out of Baton Rouge, a veteran and creditable pollster in the state. And the results of the statewide poll revealed some surprising developments, which certainly shakes things up in the race for the political plum.

To get a snapshot of how this race stood prior to the SMOR poll, we looked at three previous polls conducted by other polling firms. I averaged out the results from those three polls and came up with this result: State Treasurer John Kennedy (R) 28 percent, Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D) 14.5 percent, U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany (R) 12 percent, Attorney Caroline Fayard (D) 10.5 percent, U.S. Rep. John Fleming (R) 6.5 percent, and retired Lt. Col. Rob Maness (R) 4 percent.

But the findings of the SMOR poll has to have some campaigners scratching their heads and some candidates a bit perplexed with only about five weeks to go before the election Nov. 8. Take a look at SMOR's results:

John Kennedy (R) ...............16.9 percent.

Charles Boustany (R)..........15.2 percent.

Caroline Fayard (D)............11.4 percent.

Foster Campbell (D) ............. 9.2 percent.

John Fleming (R) .................. 8.3 percent

Rob Maness (R) .................... 3.3 percent.

David Duke (R)..................... 3.1 percent.

That means there's a whopping 32.5 percent who either chose one of the other 17 candidates or are undecided, so obviously these numbers could change as election day gets closer. What immediately jumps out is the decline in the numbers for Kennedy, who was as high as 30 percent in earlier polls, and is now being challenged by Boustany for the No. 1 spot. Many political analysts speculate that a Republican and a Democrat will eventually wind up in the runoff. If that is the case, there is a battle between Kennedy and Boustany to make the runoff.

Meanwhile, another battle seems afoot among the two major Democratic candidates. In earlier polls, Campbell was running in the No. 2 spot overall, but he has fallen to No. 4 in the SMOR poll with Democrat Fayard overtaking him with a slight lead between the two. Campbell recently snatched some influential endorsements from African-American and labor organizations in the New Orleans area, Fayard's home turf. What's interesting is the low Democratic numbers in the poll, which means many are still undecided.

“I want it to be very clear that my campaign played absolutely no role in creating this story alleging Congressman Boustany’s sexual relationships with prostitutes that were later murdered.”

– State Treasurer John Kennedy

As far as the battle between Kennedy and Boustany is concerned, there is an unknown factor, which could negatively impact both. Maybe it already has, but Pinsonat doesn't think so at this point. Things have gotten bitter between Kennedy and Boustany after the publication of a book titled “Murder in the Bayou,” written by Ethan Brown, a New Yorker who has lived in Louisiana since 2006.

The book examines the murders of eight prostitutes in Jefferson Davis Parish between 2005 and 2009. Brown doesn't claim that Boustany had anything to do with the murders, but that one of his staffers, Martin Guillory, helped operate a hotel in Jennings frequented by the prostitutes and that Boustany used their services.

Boustany has vehemently denied the allegations and Guillory, a field representative, has resigned. "I didn't know of his affiliation with this place of business. I think Mr. Guillory hid that from us," Boustany said. Enter Kennedy. He issued a statement, which said that the Boustany campaign was alleging that the Kennedy campaign played a role in the revelations about Boustany.

Kennedy said, "I want it to be very clear that my campaign played absolutely no role in creating this story alleging Congressman Boustany's sexual relationships with prostitutes that were later murdered, his staff's alleged involvement in running the bar and hotel where this illicit behavior took place, or publishing the book "Murder in the Bayou" written by Ethan Brown and published by Simon and Schuster."

Boustany was furious and called Kennedy a "political predator with no regard for the truth" and accused him and his "operatives" of peddling the story to media throughout the state. It is unclear just how many people are aware of the book and its allegations. The next poll on the race could produce some clarity as to whether it will adversely affect Boustany's campaign or backfire against Kennedy. Nevertheless, the feud between the two candidates adds a bit of drama to the race.

Should Kennedy and Boustany face a negative reaction, the candidate that could gain the most is Fleming. His numbers are improving, and he has been doing a lot of TV ads and has a hefty campaign fund. Given the tradition of past Louisiana elections, I guess we should have expected the unexpected in this race as well. It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out.

Lou Gehrig Burnett, an award-winning journalist, has been involved with politics for 44 years and was a congressional aide in Washington, D.C., for 27 years. He also served as executive assistant to former Shreveport Mayor “Bo” Williams. Burnett is the publisher of the weekly “FaxNet Update” and can be reached at 861-0552 or [email protected].