Auckland, New Zealand—The price index on this week’s semimonthly Global Dairy Trade (GDT) dairy commodity auction declined 3.5 percent from the previous auction, held two weeks ago.

That marked the seventh straight decline in the GDT price index. This week’s drop was the second-largest percentage decline in the GDT price index during that period, trailing only the 3.6-percent drop posted in August’s second auction.

The GDT price index hasn’t increased since the second auction in May. Since then, the index has declined 11 times and was unchanged once. The largest percentage decline during that period was in July’s first auction, when the index fell 5 percent.

In this week’s auction, which featured 170 participating bidders and 143 winning bidders, prices were higher for Cheddar cheese and lactose and lower for skim milk powder, whole milk powder, butter, anhydrous milkfat, and rennet casein. Buttermilk powder wasn’t offered on this week’s auction, and an average price for sweet whey powder wasn’t available.

Average winning prices in this week’s GDT auction, with comparisons to the auction held two weeks ago, were as follows:

Cheddar cheese: The average winning price was $3,252 per metric ton ($1.47 per pound), up 0.2 percent. Average winning prices were: Contract 1 (December), $3,400 per ton, up 2.1 percent; Contract 2 (January 2019), $3,220 per ton, up 4.9 percent; Contract 3 (February), $3,224 per ton, down 1.3 percent; Contract 4 (March), $3,267 per ton, down 2.8 percent; and Contract 5 (April), $3,299 per ton, down 4.2 percent.

Butter: The average winning price was $3,637 per ton ($1.65 per pound), down 9.6 percent. Average winning prices were: Contract 1, $3,960 per ton, down 15 percent; Contract 2, $3,565 per ton, down 10.3 percent; Contract 3, $3,590 per ton, down 9.8 percent; Contract 4, $3,672 per ton, down 8.4 percent; Contract 5, $3,765 per ton, down 6.8 percent; and Contract 6 (May), $3,950 per ton, down 3.7 percent.

Anhydrous milkfat: The average winning price was $4,577 per ton ($2.08 per pound), down 9.4 percent. Average winning prices were: Contract 1, $4,728 per ton, down 6.9 percent; Contract 2, $4,515 per ton, down 10.1 percent; Contract 3, $4,533 per ton, down 9.7 percent; Contract 4, $4,537 per ton, down 10.3 percent; Contract 5, $4,732 per ton, down 7.6 percent; and Contract 6, $4,964 per ton, down 4.7 percent.

Skim milk powder: The average winning price was $1,965 per ton (89.1 cents per pound), down 1.6 percent. Average winning prices were: Contract 1, $2,092 per ton, down 5.3 percent; Contract 2, $1,939 per ton, down 1.5 percent; Contract 3, $1,967 per ton, down 1.7 percent; Contract 4, $1,998 per ton, down 1 percent; Contract 5, $2,000 per ton, down 0.2 percent; and Contract 6, $2,008 per ton, up 0.7 percent.

Whole milk powder: The average winning price was $2,599 per ton ($1.18 per pound), down 1.8 percent. Average winning prices were: Contract 1, $2,548 per ton, down 7.7 percent; Contract 2, $2,591 per ton; Contract 3, $2,605 per ton, down 0.8 percent; Contract 4, $2,649 per ton, down 0.8 percent; Contract 5, $2,684 per ton, down 0.8 percent; and Contract 6, $2,745 per ton, up 1.9 percent.

Rennet casein: The average winning price was $5,067 per ton ($2.30 per pound), down 4.5 percent. Average winning prices were: Contract 1, $5,155 per ton, down 2.6 percent; Contract 2, $5,055 per ton, down 6.4 percent; Contract 3, $4,990 per ton, down 4.8 percent; and Contract 4, $5,140 per ton, down 1 percent.

Lactose: The average winning price was $920 per ton (41.7 cents per pound), up 1.1 percent. That was for Contract 2.

More generally on the global agricultural commodity front, a “melting pot” of risks, including the US trade war with China, disease and extreme weather, threaten global food price stability over the next year, according to two annual Outlook reports from Rabobank. One of the reports covers 13 agricultural commodities ranging from corn to sugar, while the other covers meat and seafood.

“The agri commodity price environment may be relatively stable currently, but it’s difficult to remember a time there were so many threats to food commodity prices on so many fronts, from trade wars to currency movements to ongoing weather threats,” said Stefan Vogel, head of agri commodity markets at Rabobank and co-author of the report covering 13 commodities.

The trade war between the US and China has shaped 2018 and if, as expected, it continues into 2019, it will alter global trade flows in the year ahead and beyond, both outlook reports noted.

Soybeans are most affected among the 13 commodities covered in one report. With China buying from elsewhere, US farmers face an oversupply of soybeans and will likely see stocks more than double to record levels by the end of 2018/19.

Also, the US dollar is currently at an 18-month high and it is anticipated to continue to strengthen into late 2019 before stabilizing, the reports pointed out. US exports will subsequently continue to suffer from a lack of competitiveness abroad, further challenging US farmer profitability.