“This will be the most expensive race of our lifetime,” a Republican friend assured me last week about the apparently already begun 2018 gubernatorial campaign.
If Democratic billionaire J.B. Pritzker pulls the trigger and decides to run, we can expect that significant campaign spending could begin as early as next month – on both sides. And if last week is any indication, this is gonna be one nasty contest.
The Illinois Republican Party began running robocalls on Dec. 13 to elected Democrats along with their party’s contributors and activists. The calls sought to tie Pritzker to imprisoned former Gov. Rod Blagojevich by using an FBI tape of Blagojevich spitballing with an aide about getting Pritzker to endow a non-profit organization that the governor could run after leaving office.
The Pritzker camp responded to the robocalls with a statement criticizing Gov. Bruce Rauner for not passing a budget for two years and allowing “human services to be gutted.” The statement from Pritzker’s spokesperson also claimed the governor should have better things to do with his time than to “dredge up the crazy rantings of Rod Blagojevich.” That led to a quickie but rather large opposition research dump that sought to tie Pritzker even more closely to Blagojevich. There was no Pritzker response to that one.
Behind the scenes, Pritzker allies fumed at the absurdly early attack and warned that Rauner was “poking the bear” and would live to regret it. But Gov. Rauner’s people mocked Pritzker for being “thin skinned” and warned that last week’s dump was “a very small appetizer.”
The aim here appears to be to either keep Pritzker out of the race or take him out in the Democratic primary before he can present a clear danger in the fall campaign with his estimated $3.4 billion net worth. Gov. Rauner has tons of his own money, of course, but he also relies on a couple of super-wealthy friends for additional tens of millions. Pritzker can conceivably fund a race all by himself, although he has recently been meeting with top labor leaders and other party honchos as well.
So, we can probably expect
more of this stuff from Rauner’s state party in the coming days as
Pritzker makes his final decision on whether to run. Neither side has
yet started a proper opposition research book on the potential
Democratic candidate. Last week’s attacks were mainly based on basic
Google and Lexis Nexis searches.
But
if they’re going to try to snuff him out in the Democratic primary,
Pritzker’s online comments about liberal Democratic presidential
candidate Bernie Sanders could eventually come into focus, I’m told.
Sanders ended up doing pretty darned well in Illinois’ Democratic
primary, so alienating a huge chunk of likely Democratic primary voters
would be a smart play.
Pritzker,
a loyal Hillary Clinton supporter, referred to the insurgent
presidential candidate on Twitter by his initials “BS” and tweeted that
Sanders was “outrageously McCarthyite.”
Pritzker
also retweeted an article about how Sanders “said lack of sex and
resenting your mom could cause cancer,” pointed to favorable comments
about Sanders by the National Rifle Association, referred to the losing
Democratic candidate’s campaign manager as “delusional” and occasionally
engaged Sanders’ supporters on the social media platform. And I didn’t
even look at the guy’s Facebook account.
Some
Democrats pointed out last week that the Republicans’ Blagojevich-based
attacks failed miserably in the just-completed U.S. Senate race against
Tammy Duckworth. But the Rauner folks say the issue kept Sen. Mark Kirk
in the hunt during the summer, before he was overwhelmed with Duckworth
cash in the fall. Indeed, Kirk was polling essentially even with
Duckworth throughout the summer.
The
Republicans also used the Blagojevich issue in several legislative
races, including against state Rep. John Bradley (D-Marion), who once
had a public fight with Blagojevich after the then-governor referred to
him as a “wall flower” and a pawn of Illinois House Speaker Michael
Madigan. That well-covered spat didn’t matter to the GOP, of course.
“For
anyone who has a real association with Blago – and I think our argument
yesterday is that J.B.’s history was more than fleeting – it is a
potent hit,” was how one Rauner guy put it the day after the robocalls
were launched.
The
question now becomes whether Pritzker is prepared to expose his children
to this sort of nonstop mudslinging for almost two solid years. We will
probably know more after the holidays. But don’t expect any lull in the
negativity while we wait.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.