Historically, graduation from high school is a triumphant moment for students.

celebrating the end of childhood and the unofficial start to adulthood.

But a new survey shows a disturbing trend towards that milestone: National graduation rates, which had been steadily increasing for decades, have fluctuated significantly in the years during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. States and even districts are experiencing noteworthy differences in that rate, based in part on how they choose to get struggling students across the finish line — from changing state graduation requirements to hiring more staff for tutoring.

Data from The Grad Partnership found that, from 2019 to 2022, about half of all states saw graduation rates fall, and whether rates went up or down depended on a school district’s location and its access to resources.

“Even as high school graduation rates and college enrollments began to rebound in the years since the height of the pandemic, there are clear signs — such as high school chronic absenteeism rates hitting 40% or more in many locales — that an easy “return to normal” is not in the offing,” according to the report, “Educating America: Progress and Challenges in Providing All Youth With the Education They Need For Adult Success.”

At the same time, the report notes, there is cause for concern that students who were middle-schoolers when the pandemic hit — and who are sophomores, juniors and seniors now — may be struggling to graduate on time.

The release of record-low 8th grade NAEP scores in 2022, and cohorts of 9th graders entering high school during a period of chronic absenteeism shocked the entire country, and solidified all the cause for concern. Experts continue to work on school resources to ensure younger cohorts get and stay on track.

Dr. Robert Balfanz, director at the nonprofit Everyone Graduates Center, says there’s not a great deal of information about whether these students will fare the same as older students when their time to graduate approaches.

“We don’t know the story yet for the kids that were in 9th grade, that were in middle grades, that were in upper elementary grades.” before the disruption, Balfanz said.

The Grad Partnership is a group of nine organizations that support school systems in improving graduation rates, conducting the survey to try and understand what factors helped or harmed students in graduating from high school these last five years.

Dissecting the data shows significant variations of graduation rates across districts before, during and after the pandemic.

The start of COVID-19 pandemic

Prior to the pandemic, graduation rates had steadily increased nationwide, for more than two decades. In 2020, 90% of students or higher graduated on time in 10 states. Now, just 5 states — Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Oregon, and Washington — reached that benchmark. Meanwhile, in four states, graduation rates fell below 80%.

Since the initial report of those five states, all but Illinois show significant drops in the same share of freshmen who are on track academically to graduate.

Factors driving grad rates up and down

Chronic absenteeism continues to be a true driving factor in keeping students from crossing the finish line. In 2021-22, the first year students returned to various forms of in-person instruction, 5,000 high schools had 400 or more chronically absent students.

Nationwide, more than 35% of high school students will miss 10%t or more of class time in 2022, according to the GRAD analysis. More than half of high schools have a third or more students chronically absent.

Technology, or lack of access to it, is another factor driving down the graduation rate. The problem shows up in students without reliable wi-fi, limited access to a computer or tablet, or insufficient support from schools for additional resources.

One factor that helped with graduation rates in states like California, New York, and nationwide data was eliminating once-mandatory requirements to graduate. That includes states that waived exit exams, or that allowed districts to decide if other requirements were necessary, or schools that made extra efforts to help students pass.

“We know of many, many examples of schools where they really made a focused effort to make sure we don’t lose our seniors, to make sure that we don’t lose our juniors, and engaged in much more detailed tracking and communication with their students than they normally would,” Balfanz said in a recent webinar.

“We can’t assume that every positive impact, every increase of grad rates during the pandemic, was simply because it made it easier to graduate,” he said. “That’s part of the story, and we’ll see that but we also have to recognize there were also a number of places more extraordinary efforts were made.”

Improving the graduation rate

Researchers made a few suggestions to help students and educators moving forward.

One suggestion was for schools and districts to make support systems like high dosage tutoring easier to access, and deploy experienced teachers to help struggling students catch up. They also recommended involving families, community organizations, and other groups to engage in workforce training, creating an alternative pathway to adult success.

Grad partnership also believes secondary schools and colleges — aspects of which have, in some ways, remained fundamentally unchanged for centuries — should be redesigned to meet the needs of present-day students. Balfanz says that’s particularly true when trying to address chronic absenteeism.

“They have to recognize that post-pandemic, especially for adolescents, they’ve got to make the case for why it’s good to be in school,” Balfanz told Education Week. “It has to be both the learning and the social cohesion-type idea. For that to be true, they have to make sure that school is a place where the kids believe they’re actually learning, and not being told in less direct or engaged ways the stuff they could get online.”

Aziah Siid is a reporter for Word in Black