If it seems to you that
more legislators are announcing their retirements than in the past,
you’re right, at least about the House.
With
last week’s retirement announcement by Rep. David Harris (R-Arlington
Heights), a total of 24 House members have either resigned or announced
that they weren’t running for reelection.
That
compares to 16 state Representatives who retired or resigned during the
99th General Assembly, a two-year period which ended this past January.
Seventeen
House members retired or resigned during the 98th General Assembly.
Sixteen retired or resigned during the 97th, and 17 resigned during the
96th. Members who lost re-election races and those who died aren’t
included in these figures.
So,
that’s an average of 16.5 retirements/resignations every two years. And
we’re already at 24 after only nine months of the 100th General
Assembly.
Now, there
are some caveats here. Two House members (Juliana Stratton and Litesa
Wallace) are leaving to run for lieutenant governor, but that’s unusual
because they’re really just beginning their legislative service.
Another, Scott Drury, is running for attorney general, but he’s clearly
dissatisfied with the House.
Even
so, statewide bids by House members are pretty rare, mainly because
their two-year terms require giving up their seats. If House members do
run statewide, it’s usually because they’re nearing the end of their
careers.
So, I think
it’s pretty safe to say that the Statehouse’s toxic atmosphere and the
political exhaustion it has caused are the main reasons why we’ve seen
so many House retirements.
But
that hasn’t necessarily been the case in the Senate, which has so far
seen seven retirements/ resignations since January. Nine Senators
retired or resigned during the 99th General Assembly. Then again, just
one retired during the 98th. And 12 retired or resigned during the 97th,
while six did so during the 96th GA. Unlike the House, the Senate’s
retirement rate has been all over the place.
The House has twice as many
members as the Senate, but more than three times as many House members
have resigned or retired so far. What gives? Senators have longer,
staggered terms, so that may be part of it.
The
one Senator we know for sure who quit because of the dysfunction was
also the most high-profile resignation of the year: Senate Republican
Leader Christine Radogno. Leader Radogno sparred with the governor’s
campaign apparatus during the 2016 campaign season and then was
repeatedly undercut by the governor and his team during her ultimately
unsuccessful “grand bargain” negotiations with the Senate Democrats.
Just
one Senate Republican, Dale Righter, voted for the income tax hike, and
he is in the middle of a four-year term. But 15 House Republicans voted
for that bill, although some didn’t vote for the veto override. All of
those Republicans were immediately denounced as essentially
being Speaker Madigan-supporting traitors by the Illinois Republican
Party. Gov. Rauner has since said that support for the education funding
reform bill would cause him to forget the tax hike vote, but the damage
was already done. The blowback from the folks back home was horrific.
Nine of the eleven House Republicans who’ve so far said they’re not running again voted for the income tax hike.
Gov.
Rauner has been focused like a laser on defeating as many of Speaker
Madigan’s House Democrats as possible. But he’s also said publicly that
he doesn’t really care if the Senate Democrats retain their majority as
long as he can topple Madigan.
Twelve
House Democrats have so far either quit or announced they aren’t
running again. Several of those faced tough general election races next
year if they ran again. Others said they’d just had enough of the war
and wanted the heck out.
Now,
I’m an agnostic when it comes to term limits. I can see the good and
the bad either way. Fresh ideas and a clean slate would be welcomed in
this state. But some fresh ideas can also be stupid ideas. And term
limits on legislators make governors more powerful – and that may not be
a good thing when you look at Illinois’ history of gubernatorial
elections.
But this
sort of turnover (on top of any electoral losses next year) means that a
higher percentage of House members will be newbies. So, remaining
legislators with more experience (along with lobbyists and staff) will
gain even more influence and power, unless those who are elected next
year take much more independent stances – and that doesn’t seem all that
likely to me.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.