Since his inauguration,
Gov. Bruce Rauner has consciously aped Washington, D.C.’s notoriously
noxious battle to “win” the daily media spin cycle. Rauner has a set
base of talking points based on tried and true poll-tested topics, and
he rarely, if ever, deviates.
While
Chicago suffered through its most violent summer in decades, the
governor routinely focused his public comments on term limits – a
not-so-subtle dig at the horribly unpopular House Speaker Michael
Madigan’s decades-long tenure, and an issue without hope of passage and
irrelevant to some very serious and immediate crises, like the one
pummeling our state’s largest city.
More
bad economic or fiscal news? Rauner reliably trots out a vague promise
of “reforms” – swearing that the Democratic leaders have promised to
take them up just as soon as the campaign is over, even though his
reforms would mean eviscerating the Democrats’ chief political allies
(labor unions and trial lawyers) and Senate President John Cullerton has
denied any such offer was ever made.
The
nuclear dumpster fire that is the presidential campaign? The governor
says he is simply too focused on reforming Illinois to care, or even to
share who he might be voting for.
And
now one of Rauner’s closest allies, the far right Illinois Policy
Institute, is producing a campaign-style “documentary” about Madigan,
just like similar dark money groups in D.C. have been nauseatingly
churning out for years.
It’s
no surprise that this movie fits in neatly with Rauner’s entire
campaign strategy. Since early June, the Republicans have aired millions
of dollars worth of television and radio ads and sent out countless
mailers all designed to tie Democratic legislators and candidates to
Madigan. Almost every dime of their funding for those attacks has come
from Gov. Rauner (and yet, Rauner has repeatedly insisted that he’s not
involved other than to write a few checks).
It’s all one big thing. All Madigan, all the time.
And while Gov. Rauner has brought D.C.’s never-ending campaign to Illinois’
executive branch, he also has a similarly tiny list of accomplishments
to show for it. His administration has so far been little more than a
frantic exercise in treading water until his chief nemesis can finally
be vanquished, or at least brought to heel.
But this isn’t a completely new development. We’re already familiar with some of this in Illinois.
Speaker
Madigan has been doing something similar for years, albeit on a much
smaller, less obviously dramatic, less technologically advanced and less
expensive scale.
His
House chamber’s agenda is almost entirely organized around making sure
that Madigan gets his more vulnerable incumbents reelected. And those
vulnerable members are advised to take whatever positions are necessary
to win reelection (including fanning the already intense flames of hate
against Madigan’s home town of Chicago). There was a time when Madigan
had a specific
“theme” for each legislative week, only voting on bills that matched the
weekly issue. He even at one point tried his hand at (ahem) publishing a
Statehouse newsletter.
Madigan
has refused to discuss any significant deal on the governor’s
Turnaround Agenda, sticking closely to his talking points that Rauner is
“operating in the extreme,” even though Madigan has often supported
legislation in the past that unions didn’t love.
Madigan
won’t budge this time because Rauner’s overt hostility has sent all
those unions running to the speaker with wide open checkbooks and huge
lists of precinct workers. There’s simply no political advantage to
compromise unless Rauner’s gamble pays off and he successfully makes
Madigan “the” big issue of the year and Madigan loses a bunch of seats.
Otherwise, we may not see a deal during the “lame duck” session after the election and the impasse will likely
drag on. If there is no progress, Rauner will undoubtedly make his
entire 2018 reelection campaign about Madigan. But next time, it won’t
be a few tens of millions of dollars like this year. It’ll be real
money. Maybe $100 million.
And,
unless Hillary Clinton manages to lose the presidential race, the
governor’s reelection campaign will occur during yet another Democratic
midterm election, which will make it that much easier to get his anti-
Madigan message through to voters. (One of Rauner’s many valid and
understandable reasons for refusing to give any overt public aid or
comfort to Trump is that a Trump win would devastate Rauner’s reelection
chances.)
This battered, much-maligned state shouldn’t have to endure this agony, but here we are, like it or not.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.