The media have often stressed the importance of the minority vote in determining presidential elections. Some pundits have even gone further, contending that black and Hispanic support has been the prerequisite for a victory. How could a small electorate exert such powerful political influence?

Even as recently as in the 2012 presidential race, nonwhites accounted for less than 24 percent of the total electorate; whites (non-Hispanic) comprised the remaining portion with more than 98 million voters – more than three times all black, Hispanic and Asian voters. Nevertheless, the minorities were able to swing the election results due to the profound racial differences in party preferences, as well as the competing party support among the majority.

The minorities have been primarily a voting bloc for the Democratic candidates. Since 1980 when the minorities constituted a significant proportion of the total electorate (about 12 percent), an average of 78 percent of this group have voted for the Democrats, compared to 19 percent for the GOP. By comparison, the whites have exhibited more balanced party choices: a 55 percent average for Republicans vs. 40 percent for Democrats.

These different voting patterns have shaped our political landscape. The variations in party support among whites have had a significant bearing on whether the minority vote could tip the political balance. For example, when white support for the GOP was solid during the 1980s, the Republican nominees prevailed despite strong minority opposition. On the other hand, when whites were nearly evenly split in party support in the 1990s, they actually negated their electoral influence, creating an opportunity for the minorities to sway the election results. The minority vote continued to shift the balance in the 2000s, even though by that time white approval for the GOP had somewhat revived. An uncharacteristic swing in minority support in the early 2000s ensured two Republican victories; without that support in 2008, the scales were leveraged in the Democrats’ favor.

The GOP’s popularity among the whites continued to grow, reaching the same level in 2012 as it had in 1980 and 1988. Yet the Republicans lost. This was unprecedented as the loss was accompanied with some of the strongest GOP support from the whites (39 percent for Democrats vs. 59 percent for the GOP), suggesting that the nonwhites’ growing electorate share had become more influential. Undoubtedly, the minorities’ electoral impact will gain further momentum as their population ratio increases. Despite the fact that fewer Hispanics are eligible to vote proportionately, the nonwhites’ electorate share will likely grow from 25 percent in 2015 to 29 percent in 2030, an increase of more than 10 million voters in a decade (see table below). Is our political future therefore demographically destined? Not necessarily.

The surge in the number of nonwhite voters will benefit the Democrats, provided that minority support remains loyal. However, like before, this voting bloc will still need the majority’s support to score Democratic victories, as it will remain relatively small for some time. Although the nonwhites will grow less dependent upon their counterparts for votes as seen in 2012, their electoral impact will likely be shaped for many years to come by party divisions among white voters.

Inasmuch as these two population segments differ with respect to life experiences and socio-economic circumstances, they will vote differently. The minorities have been predominantly drawn to the agenda advocating big government, whereas whites have been divided along the lines of the two major political philosophies. As in the past, the importance of the minority vote in the near future can only be meaningfully assessed in the light of how evenly the non-Hispanic whites cast their votes between the two parties. Thus, the widely accepted belief that a presidential candidate must have solid minority support in order to triumph is up for debate.

Dr. John Chiang was an Illinois state demographer from 1979 to 1991. He has lived in Springfi eld since 1979.