Ever since Harold Washington’s victory in the emotion-charged campaign for mayor of Chicago, Bostonians have been wondering what impact that election will have on the mayor’s race here. All over the country, Afro-Americans were inspired by Washington’s success in overcoming the racial hostility that plagued his effort to become the mayor of the nation’s second largest city.
The euphoria of Washington’s victory has deeply touched Boston’s black community, and there is considerable speculation now about whether an inspired black voting bloc will be able to elect former state representative Mel King as Boston’s first black mayor.
Supporters of Mel King insist that he has an excellent chance to be elected. Others believe, however, that the black vote in Boston is not yet large enough to elect a black mayor. Almost without exception, black candidates have had to rely on a massive turnout of a large black electorate in order to become mayor of a major city.
In Chicago, Washington won by a margin of only 45,000 votes out of a total 1.3 million cast in an election that saw a record 82 percent turnout. He took more than 80 percent of the city’s black vote, which makes up 41 percent of the electorate. Similarly, Wilson Goode recently won the mayoralty primary in Philadelphia, where blacks constitute 44 percent of the Democratic voters.
Boston’s black population is small by comparison.
In this city of 563,000, there are only 126,300 blacks who comprise 22.4 percent of Boston’s population. However, an estimated 40,000 registered black voters account for only 17 percent of Boston’s electorate.
In order to win an election for mayor of Boston, therefore, a black candidate would have to get a solid black vote and about 42 percent of the votes cast by non-blacks.
Only one black mayor in a major city has been able to succeed against such odds — Tom Bradley of Los Angeles. While blacks constitute only 17 percent of the population, Los Angeles has a very popular black mayor who last year almost became the first black man in the United States to be elected governor.
But Los Angeles is not Boston. According to studies, there is less anti-black prejudice and perceived racial threat in Los Angeles. Also, a large Jewish-American vote, second in size to New York City, is willing to support qualified black candidates for public office.
Bradley’s experience in Los Angeles, therefore, cannot be easily transplanted in Boston.
The pattern for winning elections in the major cities has been for the black mayoralty candidate to rely on a solid black vote and about 20 percent of the white and Hispanic vote combined. This pattern is not of very long vintage, however, since the emergence of black, big-city mayors is a fairly recent phenomenon.
It all began on November 7, 1967. On that day, Carl Stokes, a Democratic state legislator, narrowly defeated Republican Seth Taft to become the mayor of Cleveland. On that same day, Richard Hatcher, a Democratic city councilor, squeaked by Republican Joseph Radigan to become mayor of Gary, Indiana. Then, Stokes won reelection in 1969. Bradley in Los Angeles and Richard Austin in Detroit narrowly lost their bids to become mayor. In 1970, Kenneth Gibson was elected the mayor of Newark, New Jersey, for the first time; and the next year. Hatcher won reelection in Gary.
Now there are 223 black mayors in cities and towns across the country, with only 17 of them serving in cities with populations over 100,000 (Atlanta, Ga.; Berkeley, Calif.; Birmingham, Ala.; Detroit, Mich.; Gary, Ind.; Hartford, Conn.; Uttle Rock, Aik.; Los Angeles, Calif; Macon, Ga.; Newark, N.J.; New Orleans, La.; Oakland and Pasadena, Calif.; Richmond and Roanoke, Va.; Spokane, Wash.; and Washington, D.C). Most large cities with substantial black populations do not have black mayors.
For a few cities, the growth of the black population during the ’70s has almost assured the continual election of black mayors: Detroit has a 63.1 percent black population; Washington, 70.3 percent; Atlanta, 66 percent; and Gary, 70.8 percent. For many other cities, however, substantial growth in the black population has by no means assured the election of a black mayor.
Furthermore, the election of a black mayor does not necessarily establish a voting pattern. Cleveland, Ohio offers a prime example of this. A city with approximately the same population as Boston but with many more blacks (251,300), Cleveland was the first major city to elect a black mayor. Since Carl Stokes left office more than a decade ago, however, no other black mayor has been elected in Cleveland, even though blacks constitute 43.8 percent of the population.
The lesson of Chicago is that it is incredibly difficult to elect a black mayor in a racially divided city unless blacks dominate politically. Washington won a narrow victory in Chicago, even though the city’s 1,197,000 black residents constitute 39.8 percent of the population. While one cannot precisely determine what factors led to victory in such a close political contest, an analysis of the strong points of Washington’s campaign should provide some indication of King’s chances for success in Boston in November.
Washington was clearly the popular choice of blacks in Chicago. His personal philosophy seemed to embrace the aspirations of the black people. His articulate expression of black ideals captured the imaginations of blacks across the country.
Also, Washington’s piercingly direct style of rhetoric gave him the upper hand in the television debates with his white opponents. Some analysts believe that these debates helped to earn for Washington the support he needed from whites who were not committed to casting their votes on purely racial grounds. His simple eloquence also attracted national attention to his candidacy, and made the outcome of the election a matter of grave concern both to blacks all over the country and to the National Democratic Party.
Another crucial factor is that the Chicago mayoral election is partisan. When Washington won the primary, he became the Democratic nominee in an overwhelmingly Democratic city. The last Republican to serve as mayor was William Thompson, who left office 52 years ago in 1931. If white Democrats refused to elect the black nominee for mayor of Chicago, then the Democrats could expect wholesale black defections from the party, all across the country when black votes are needed in the 1984 presidential race.
To prevent such a calamity, the National Democratic Party raised money for Washington, and major Democratic politicians endorsed him and campaigned for him. This imprimatur of political respectability probably did not dissuade one hardcore, committed white ethnic from casting his vote for the Republican nominee, Bernard Epton, but it probably did help to convince many whites in Chicago that Washington was an acceptable candidate.
Mel King has none of these factors working for him. In the primary for mayor on September 25, 1979, he received only 55 percent of the black vote. While his total vote was a surprising 17,490, King was still quite a bit behind the 50,272 votes for incumbent Kevin H. White and the 33,026 votes for State Senator Joseph F. Timilty.
There is nothing in King’s style, his rhetoric or his philosophy which has captured the imagination of the black community since 1979. The strategy seems to be hold on to the base he has or maybe increase it some with the votes of blacks who have been inspired by the Chicago experience. In a crowded field. King hopes that this vote will be enough to win one of the two slots in the primary to qualify for the final election.
And there is the rub. Boston’s election for mayor is nonpartisan, so anyone can vote his prejudice without the slightest pangs of guilt. The final fight in November will be between two Democrats. No Democratic political stars will be flying into town. No funds will come from the National Democratic Party. This race will not be constantly on the network news.
It is unlikely, therefore, that King will be able to fare well against any of the declared candidates who are able to finish either first or second in the preliminary election. In order to win, King would have to get a solid black vote, which is by no means assured, and at least 42 percent of the non-black vote. It is more likely that King would be trounced in such a head-tohead contest.
Perhaps this is a time when blacks feel an emotional need to cast their votes for a black candidate, any candidate, regardless of his qualifications or chances for victory. Only time will tell.
But the real legacy of Chicago is that blacks should organize their political power and use it in the most effective way to achieve the kind of government they want. In Boston, the strategy for this election should be to back an electable candidate who is committed to the goal of fully involving blacks in municipal government. Any other approach to this election is certain to lead to bitter disappointment.
January 16, 1979: The Shah leaves Iran; revolutionary forces under Muslim leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, take over (Feb. 1).
May 3, 1979: Conservatives win British election; Margaret Thatcher new prime minister.
July 17, 1979: Nicaraguan president Gen. Anastasio Somoza Debayle resigns and flees to Miami; Sandinistas form government (July 19).
December 27, 1979: Soviet invasion of Afghanistan stirs world protests.
January 29, 1980: Six U.S. Embassy aides escape from Iran with Canadian help.
November 4, 1980: Ronald Reagan elected 40th U.S. president in Republican sweep.
March 30, 1981: Assassination attempt on President Reagan.
May 14, 1981: Pope John Paul II wounded by gunman.
June 5, 1981: The Federal Centers for Disease Control publish the first report that identified AIDS. Within 10 years the disease kills 110,000 Americans.
September 25, 1981: Sandra Day O’Connor sworn in as the first woman on the U.S. supreme court.
1981: In Boston: Boston Society of Film Critics founded; Dance Umbrella founded; Boston Area Feminist Coalition founded; Boston Food Bank incorporated.
June 30, 1982: Equal Rights Amendment fails ratification.
November 30, 1982: Michael Jackson releases “Thriller,” which sells more than 25 million copies, becoming the biggest-selling album in history.
1982: In Boston: Boston Gay Men’s Chorus established; Boston Fair Housing Commission established.
June 18, 1983: Sally K. Ride, 32, becomes the first U.S. woman astronaut in space as a crew member aboard the orbiter Challenger.
August 30, 1983: Guion Bluford becomes the first African-American in space aboard orbiter Challenger on the STS-8 mission.
November 2, 1983: Martin Luther King, Jr. Day: At the White House Rose Garden, U.S. President Ronald Reagan signs a bill creating a federal holiday on the third Monday of every January to honor American civil rights leader. It is first observed in 1986.
1983: In Boston: Boston Community Access and Programming Foundation established; Dorchester Reporter begins publication; Opening of the Bayside Expo Center.
May 8, 1984: The Soviet Union announces that it will boycott the 1984 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
November 6, 1984: United States presidential election, 1984: Ronald Reagan defeats Walter F. Mondale.
December 22, 1984: Bernhard Goetz shoots 4 African-American youth who attempted to rob him, starting debate on urban crime.